Men’s NCAA Tournament 2024: B/R Expert Predictions 2nd Round

Matchup: No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 13 Yale (East Regional)

Details: Sunday at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS), Spokane

One-Sentence Synopsis: Instead of an Auburn-UAB showdown in Spokane, two defensive-minded teams will square off for the right to face (probably) Connecticut.

San Diego State Wins If: Jaedon LeDee does his foul-drawing thing. John Poulakidas was on fire in the upset of Auburn, but generally speaking, big man Danny Wolf is Yale’s most important player. He was able to log 33 minutes before fouling out against the Tigers, but the Bulldogs have very little frontcourt depth when he gets into foul trouble. And you can count on one hand how many players draw fouls at a higher rate than LeDee, which was a major factor in SDSU’s opening win over UAB.

Yale Wins If: It can stifle San Diego State’s interior offense. The Aztecs want to do the vast majority of their scoring in the paint, but that’s where Yale’s defense tends to do its best work, too. This is why LeDee getting Wolf into foul trouble would be such a major advantage for SDSU, as the Bulldogs would not be anywhere near as well-equipped to slow down the Aztecs if their primary shot-blocker is neutralized by whistles. If Yale can force SDSU to settle for threes more often than it typically does, though, that would be big.

If I Had to Bet on Something: Yale +5.5. Both of these teams played in nail-biters in the first round, and Yale played well earlier this season against both Kansas and Gonzaga. The final margin was 15 in each of those games, but the Bulldogs were competitive much deeper into those games than the scores suggest. This one could/should come right down to the wire.

David Kenyon: San Diego State

Kerry Miller: San Diego State

Joel Reuter: San Diego State